UFC 4-159-03
3 October 2005
The probability or risk that an event will be equaled or exceeded one or
more times during any given interval is determined from:
P = 100%* (1 - (1 - 1 / R) N )
EQUATION:
(1)
where
probability, in percent, of an event
P =
being equaled or exceeded one or more
times in a specified interval
R = return interval (years)
N = service life (years)
Figure 3-1 shows risk versus years on station for various selected values
of return interval. For example, take a ship that is on station at a site for 20 years (N =
20). There is a P = 18.2 percent probability that an event with a return interval of R =
100 years or greater will occur one or more times at a site in a 20-year interval.
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